Analysis of Trades and Tips for Trading the British Pound

The price test at 1.3160 occurred as the MACD indicator began to move up from the zero mark, confirming a good entry point to buy the pound. However, the pair did not experience significant growth thereafter.

The British pound continued to demonstrate quite high volatility. Uncertainty about Starmer's government's fiscal policy is putting substantial pressure on the pound's exchange rate. Investors also express concerns about the resilience of the British economy. The market is closely monitoring every statement from the Bank of England regarding future monetary policy. It is expected that the central bank may opt for a rate cut to stimulate economic growth, which would exert further pressure on the British pound.

With no fresh statistical data available today, attention will turn to the speech of Catherine L. Mann, a member of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee. Her scheduled remarks may shed light on the central bank's future strategy concerning monetary policy. Traders will closely analyze her speech, hoping to detect changes in her rhetoric or updated forecasts. Comments from Mann regarding inflation are of particular interest, as her perspective on the issue could significantly adjust market expectations regarding the maintenance of interest rates at high levels. The market is also awaiting Mann's assessment of the current state of the British economy.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.

Buying Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to buy the pound today when it reaches the entry point around 1.3155 (green line on the chart), targeting a move to 1.3189 (thicker green line on the chart). At 1.3189, I plan to exit the market and sell the pound in the opposite direction, expecting a move of 30-35 pips from the entry point. A rise in the pound can be anticipated today with positive news. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today if the price tests 1.3132 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the downside potential of the pair and lead to an upward market reversal. A rise to the opposing levels of 1.3155 and 1.3189 can be expected.

Selling Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound after the 1.3132 level is updated (red line on the chart), which will trigger a swift decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 1.3103 level, where I intend to exit my short positions and buy immediately in the opposite direction, expecting a move of 20-25 points from this level. Sellers will reflect their presence with a dovish policy stance. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today if the price tests 1.3155 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the upside potential of the pair and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline to the opposing levels of 1.3132 and 1.3103 can be expected.

What the Chart Shows:

• Thin Green Line: Entry price for buying the trading instrument.
• Thick Green Line: Estimated price where Take Profit can be set or where profit can be secured, as further increases above this level are unlikely.
• Thin Red Line: Entry price for selling the trading instrument.
• Thick Red Line: Estimated price where Take Profit can be set or where profit can be secured, as further decreases below this level are unlikely.
• MACD Indicator: When entering the market, it is important to be guided by the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market must be very cautious when making trading entry decisions. It is best to remain out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade with large volumes.

And remember that successful trading requires having a clear trading plan, similar to the one I presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.