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12.08.2025 09:29 AM
Stock market on August 12: S&P 500 and Nasdaq edge lower

US stock indices ended yesterday's session with losses. The S&P 500 fell by 0.25%, while the Nasdaq 100 slipped by 0.30%. The industrial Dow Jones dropped by 0.45%.

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However, as Asian trading opened, indices moved higher on a wave of investor optimism after President Donald Trump signaled he was ready to allow American companies to resume certain microchip supplies to China and extended the trade truce with Beijing. This statement, coming after a prolonged period of tension in trade relations between the world's two largest economies, provided a breath of fresh air for markets worn down by uncertainty and fears of a global economic slowdown.

The resumption of microchip deliveries, a key component of modern electronics, to China effectively marks an easing of sanctions pressure on Chinese technology companies. This development has been welcomed by investors hoping for a recovery in business activity and higher corporate profits. The extension of the trade truce, in turn, opens the door for further negotiations and the search for compromise solutions capable of resolving existing disputes and preventing an escalation of the trade war. The impact of this news on Asian markets was immediate and pronounced. Indices posted solid gains, supported by rising trading volumes and fresh capital inflows. Investors, fatigued by volatility and uncertainty, viewed the signal of a possible easing in trade tensions as an opportunity to restore positions and lock in profits.

The Asian equity index rose by 0.4%, partially giving up earlier gains after China urged local companies not to use Nvidia Corp.'s H20 processors. The US dollar index slipped by 0.1%, while US Treasury prices were little changed. Gold prices advanced. European stock index futures added 0.3%, while US index futures fell by 0.1%, erasing previous gains following China's directive.

Asia as a whole breathed a sigh of relief over fears of tighter sanctions that could hit the microchip or electronics ecosystem. Meanwhile, China strongly urged local companies to avoid using Nvidia H20 processors, especially for state-related purposes. This complicates the chipmaker's attempts to recoup billions in lost revenue in China, as well as the unprecedented efforts of the Trump administration to turn those sales into windfall income for the US government.

Later today, attention will shift to inflation data, which is expected to show an increase as retailers have been gradually raising prices on various goods subject to higher import tariffs. However, market reaction to any surprises in the figures could prove exaggerated, especially if significantly higher-than-expected CPI data leads traders to believe that the Federal Reserve may refrain from cutting rates at its next meeting.

The US Core Consumer Price Index, viewed as a gauge of underlying inflation since it excludes volatile food and energy prices, is expected to show a 0.3% increase in July.

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As for the technical picture of the S&P 500, the main task for buyers today will be to break through the nearest resistance level of $6,385. This would support further gains and open the way for a push to a new level at $6,392. An equally important priority for bulls will be to maintain control above $6,400, which would strengthen their position. In the event of a decline amid reduced risk appetite, buyers will need to assert themselves near $6,373. A break below this level would quickly push the instrument back to $6,364 and open the road toward $6,355.

Jakub Novak,
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