Analysis of trades and trading tips for the Japanese yen

The price test at 158.75 coincided with a period when the MACD indicator had moved far above the zero mark, which limited the pair's upside potential. A second test at 158.75, when the MACD was in the overbought area, prompted the implementation of Scenario No. 2 to sell the dollar, which led to a small 25-pip decline in the pair.

Positive economic indicators published in the US yesterday, together with statements by Federal Reserve officials, prompted a strengthening of the US dollar against the yen, but a larger uptrend did not materialize. Obviously, many market participants are reluctant to sell the yen at current levels due to the risk of active central bank intervention to weaken the national currency. There is no Japanese data today, so trading in the first half of the day will continue within a side channel, with no sharp directional moves. In the near future, the dollar's trajectory will depend on incoming US data and comments from Fed representatives. The market will closely monitor any hints of a change in the direction of monetary policy.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Scenarios for buying

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today at an entry point around 158.49 (green line on the chart), with a target to rise to 158.95 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 158.95, I intend to exit longs and open shorts in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 pip move in the opposite direction from that level). It is best to return to buying the pair on corrections and significant pullbacks in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is only just starting to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if the MACD indicator is oversold and the price tests 158.18 twice. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. One can expect a rise to the opposite levels, 158.49 and 158.95.

Scenarios for selling

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after the level 158.18 is renewed (red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline of the pair. The key target for sellers will be 157.79, where I intend to exit shorts and immediately open longs in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 pip move in the opposite direction from that level). It is better to sell at the highest possible price. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is only just starting to fall from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if the MACD indicator is in the overbought area and the pair tests 158.49 twice. This will limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a market reversal downward. One can expect a decline to the opposite levels, 158.18 and 157.79.

What is on the chart

• Thin green line — entry price at which you can buy the instrument
• Thick green line — suggested Take Profit price or level at which to manually lock in profit, since further rise above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line — entry price at which you can sell the instrument
• Thick red line — suggested Take Profit price or level at which to manually lock in profit, since further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD indicator — when entering the market, it is important to follow the overbought and oversold zones
• Important notes: Beginner forex traders must be very cautious when deciding to enter the market. It is best to be out of the market before major fundamental reports are released to avoid being caught in sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can lose your entire deposit quickly, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.
• Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market noise are a losing strategy for the intraday trader.