On Wednesday, the GBP/USD currency pair once again traded lower—a move we see as completely illogical. However, it's important to remember that the market isn't always trending. Flat (sideways) trading makes up to 80% of the time. Let's jump to the daily timeframe. What do we see? Since early May, the pound has traded between 1.3150 and 1.3780. Yes, it's a fairly wide channel, but we're talking about a long-term timeframe. An upward move could resume or extend even from current positions, and in that case, we'll talk about a trend again. Still, the price can continue to move within this range for quite some time, which is neither surprising nor unusual.

We also want to emphasize that movements within a flat do not require any fundamental or macroeconomic justification. A flat is the result of accumulation or distribution by major players. Surely no one believes that big players only trade when there are major news events, speeches, or reports. This means the current decline in the pair is an illogical move because any event of similar significance didn't precede it. But within a sideways market, such moves are common.

We continue to see no prospects for the US currency. Donald Trump remains the main problem for the dollar. Maybe under his administration the stock market or gold is soaring, but in the FX market, the reaction to the Republican's actions is clear and repetitive.

Just recall: Trump wants total control and submission from almost every country in the world. So far, he's failed on many fronts. Take the Federal Reserve, for instance. What has Trump achieved? Nothing. True, he replaced Adriana Kugler with Stephen Miran. Yes, next year Jerome Powell will be replaced by someone who will vote for a "rate cut" at every meeting. But what has Trump actually achieved so far?

The war in Ukraine has also not ended—despite Trump's efforts. For a long time, the US president tried to portray himself as Russia's best friend, but as we see, the Kremlin "didn't buy" the act. Time after time, Trump gives Moscow two weeks to "think about its behavior," but the fact remains: the conflict goes on. Meanwhile, Trump continues to present himself as the chief peacemaker, even angling for a Nobel Peace Prize. But honestly, what war has Trump actually stopped? The war between Pakistan and India? How long did that last—two hours? The war between Israel and Iran? Conflict in the Middle East has dragged on for decades. Trump simply paused one big, ongoing conflict, using his influence in Jerusalem.

Generally, there are more words than actions from the US president. In fact, Trump doesn't seem to overwork himself—by some journalistic calculations, he's spent about a third of his presidential term on golf courses, erecting statues to himself in the process. In short, it remains hard for us to expect any growth from the dollar.

The average volatility for GBP/USD over the last five trading days is 88 pips—"average" for this pair. On Thursday, September 25, we expect movement within the 1.3359 to 1.3535 range. The higher linear regression channel is pointing upwards, showing a clear upward trend. The CCI indicator entered oversold territory again, which once more hints at a resumption of the uptrend.

Nearest Support Levels:

S1 – 1.3428

S2 – 1.3367

S3 – 1.3306

Nearest Resistance Levels:

R1 – 1.3489

R2 – 1.3550

R3 – 1.3611

Trading Recommendations:

The GBP/USD currency pair is once again in correction mode, but its long-term prospects remain unchanged. Trump's policies will continue to put pressure on the dollar, so we don't expect any growth from the US currency. Thus, long positions with targets at 1.3672 and 1.3733 are much more relevant if the price stays above the moving average. If price moves below the moving average, consider small shorts on a purely technical basis. Occasionally, the US dollar may exhibit corrections (as it does now), but for a genuine, sustained uptrend, we need to see genuine signs of the end of the global trade war or other major positive factors.

Chart Elements Explained:

• Linear regression channels help determine the current trend. If both channels point in the same direction, the trend is strong.
• The moving average line (settings 20,0, smoothed) indicates the short-term trend and trade direction.
• Murray levels serve as target levels for moves and corrections.
• Volatility levels (red lines) are the likely price channel for the next day, based on current volatility readings.
• The CCI indicator: dips below -250 (oversold) or rises above +250 (overbought) mean a trend reversal may be near.