Bitcoin and Ethereum have risen well today; however, this upward momentum may quickly run out of steam. Bitcoin is currently trading above $65,000, while Ethereum has crossed the $1,700 mark.

Despite this, there have been significant outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs since early May — and according to Farside, the situation remains troubling even after the first positive day in a long time. Last Friday, ETFs finally showed inflows, ending a streak of 18 consecutive outflows, but it is too early to draw conclusions about a reversal: the premium on Coinbase remains deeply negative, indicating continued selling pressure. This means that American institutions continue to sell more than they buy—a pattern that has traditionally set the tone for the entire market. One day of inflow amid persistently negative premiums is more of a technical pause than a trend change.

An explanation increasingly heard is that the outflows are not due to disappointment in cryptocurrency per se, but to a capital rotation into massive IPOs. The market is gearing up for the launches by Anthropic and OpenAI—companies that embody the artificial intelligence boom. The logic of investors is straightforward: why hold volatile Bitcoin without cash flow when there are upcoming offerings from leaders of the AI revolution with real products and revenue? This echoes the thesis of Michael Saylor himself, who explained that pressure on Bitcoin is due to about $400 billion flowing into the AI sector over six months.

Thus, the balance of positivity and negativity in the market is currently fragile. On the positive side is the ceasefire between the US and Iran: the easing of geopolitical tension and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz have revived risk appetite, causing Bitcoin to bounce back to $65,600. On the negative side are the ongoing structural outflows, the negative premium on Coinbase, and warnings that a large-scale capitulation in the market has not yet occurred. This is why it is premature to speak of reaching a bottom: many are awaiting a decline in prices to the area of $55,000, and in the pessimistic scenario, down to $40,000.

Regarding short-term trading, the strategy and conditions are outlined below.

Bitcoin

Buy Scenario:

Scenario #1: I plan to buy Bitcoin today when the entry point reaches around $66,000, with a target for growth to the level of $66,600. At around $66,600, I intend to exit my buy positions and sell immediately on the bounce (expecting a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from the level). It's best to return to buying the pair on corrections and significant dips in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying on a breakout, make sure the 50-day moving average is below the current price, and the Awesome indicator is above zero.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy Bitcoin from the lower bound of $65,600 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back down to the levels of $66,000 and $66,600.

Sell Scenario:

Scenario #1: I plan to sell Bitcoin today after reaching the entry level of $65,600, targeting a drop to $64,900. At around $64,900, I intend to exit my sell positions and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair can return at any moment. Important! Before selling on a breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price, and the Awesome indicator is below zero.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell Bitcoin from the upper bound of $66,000 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back down to the levels of $65,600 and $64,900.

Ethereum

Buy Scenario:

Scenario #1: I plan to buy Ethereum today when the entry point reaches around $1,725, with a target for growth to the level of $1,745. At around $1,745, I intend to exit my buy positions and sell immediately on the bounce (expecting a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Important! Before buying on a breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is below the current price, and the Awesome indicator is above zero.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy Ethereum at the lower bound of $1,713 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back down to $1,725 and $1,745.

Sell Scenario:

Scenario #1: I plan to sell Ethereum today after reaching the entry point around $1,713, targeting a drop to $1,695. At around $1,695, I intend to exit my sell positions and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Important! Before selling on a breakout, ensure that the 50-day moving average is above the current price, and the Awesome indicator is below zero.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell Ethereum from the upper bound of $1,725 if there is no market reaction to its breakout back down to the levels of $1,713 and $1,695.