On Friday, the EUR/USD pair formed a new rebound from the resistance level of 1.1645–1.1656, reversed in favor of the US dollar, and fell to the 61.8% retracement level at 1.1594. Thus, today a rebound from this level will work in favor of the euro and a return to the 1.1645–1.1656 level. A consolidation of the pair below 1.1594 will increase the likelihood of further decline toward the next Fibonacci level of 76.4% at 1.1517.

The wave situation on the hourly chart remains simple and clear. The new upward wave has not yet broken the peak of the previous wave, and the latest downward wave broke the previous low. Thus, at this time the trend remains bearish. Bullish traders have begun advancing, but they must maintain momentum for the bullish trend to resume. To consider the bearish trend completed, the pair must rise above 1.1656 or form two consecutive bullish waves.

On Friday, the news background was practically absent, but traders are gradually waking up and preparing for the long-awaited US labor market and unemployment data. Over the weekend, information emerged that the missing October reports may begin to be released as early as this week. In particular, Thursday is being mentioned as a possible release date for the September Nonfarm Payrolls report. However, at this moment, there is no official confirmation of this date in economic calendars. In my view, traders will have to stay alert and check the calendar daily this week. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics could announce the release of labor market data on any day as soon as it collects all the necessary information. And how long that will take is unknown. Therefore, I would not be confident that Thursday will be the release day for the payrolls report. It is also worth noting that the September data may reflect the real state of the labor market, whereas the October data (due to the shutdown) may not. However, improvement in the labor market in September should not be expected, since by that time the Fed had not yet implemented any monetary easing.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair rebounded from the 23.6% retracement level at 1.1649, reversed in favor of the US currency, and began a new decline toward the 38.2% Fibonacci level at 1.1538. A consolidation of the pair above the resistance level of 1.1649–1.1680 will support the euro and continue growth toward the next correction level at 1.1829. No emerging divergences are observed on any indicators today.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report

During the most recent reporting week, professional traders closed 789 long positions and opened 2,625 short positions. No new COT reports have been released for more than a month. The sentiment of the Non-commercial group remains bullish thanks to Donald Trump and is strengthening over time. The total number of long positions held by speculators is now 252,000, while short contracts account for 138,000 — nearly a twofold difference. Also note the number of green cells in the table above, which indicate strong accumulation of positions in the euro. In most cases, interest in the euro is growing, while interest in the dollar is falling.

For 33 weeks in a row, large players have been reducing short positions and increasing long positions. Donald Trump's policy remains the most significant factor for traders, as it may trigger numerous long-term, structural problems for the US. Despite the signing of several important trade agreements, many key economic indicators are showing declines.

News Calendar for the US and the European Union

On November 17, the economic calendar contains no noteworthy entries. The news background will have no influence on market sentiment on Monday.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trader Recommendations

Sell positions were possible today on a rebound from the 1.1645–1.1656 level on the hourly chart with a target of 1.1594. The target has been reached. New sell positions are possible if the price closes below 1.1594, with a target of 1.1517. Buy positions can be considered on a rebound from 1.1594 on the hourly chart with a target at 1.1645–1.1656.

The Fibonacci grids are built from 1.1392–1.1919 on the hourly chart and from 1.1066–1.1829 on the 4-hour chart.