Let's return to Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve, and the outlook for the dollar. The Fed Chair, along with almost the entire FOMC, is unified in their assessment of the current economic reality—and this is very significant. Recently, many analysts have spoken about divisions within the Fed, and such a split does exist. However, it's essential to understand the nature of this split. Donald Trump has formed his own "wing" within the Committee. This is not a "dovish wing," as some might think, but rather a "wing that will vote as Trump instructs." If the US President were to decide tomorrow that rates should be raised, Bowman, Waller, and Miran would vote for a hike, citing high inflation, which would instantly become a higher priority than the labor market.

It's crucial to realize that there really is a "dovish wing," but it consists of only three members. And it's unlikely to grow anytime soon. Trump hasn't managed to fire Cook, and Powell will remain Fed Chair for another seven months. Even after he departs, the number of "doves" on the Committee could rise to no more than four, which is still not enough for aggressive rate cuts.

Therefore, over the next year, I would not expect sharp monetary policy easing. Trump will likely continue to attack and criticize the Fed, and he may ultimately prevail. However, at present, there is no clear basis for this.

As for Stephen Miran's stance, it honestly just makes me smile. The newly appointed Fed governor thinks that the labor market urgently needs support, but barely mentions inflation. The Fed officially has two mandates, so any politician can "spin" them to suit their own goals. If a rate cut is needed, the labor market becomes the most important factor. If a hike is needed, then inflation takes priority.

However, as I mentioned earlier, the majority of the FOMC still adhere to the opposite approach and don't prioritize one mandate over the other. As a result, the Fed will continue to strive for balance. Powell remarked, "There is no risk-free path." Therefore, it's impossible to achieve both objectives at the same time. The Fed will thus have to walk a fine line, trying to minimize risks to both sides wherever possible.

Wave Pattern for EUR/USD:

Based on my analysis, EUR/USD is still in the process of constructing an upward trend segment. The wave structure continues to depend entirely on the news background—particularly decisions by Trump and the internal and external policies of the new White House Administration. The targets for the current trend could reach as high as the 1.25 area. With the news flow unchanged, I continue to stay long, even after reaching my first target near 1.1875, which is equivalent to a 161.8% Fibonacci level. By year-end, I expect the euro to rise to 1.2245, which matches the 200.0% Fibonacci level.

Wave Pattern for GBP/USD:

The GBP/USD wave pattern remains intact. We're dealing with an upward, impulsive part of the trend. With Donald Trump at the helm, markets could face plenty more shocks and reversals, potentially affecting the wave picture—but for now, the main scenario remains whole, as Trump's policies have not changed. The upward wave targets are around the 261.8% Fibonacci level. Currently, I expect the pair to continue rising within wave 3 of 5, targeting 1.4017.

Main Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complicated structures are hard to trade and often signal changes.
2. If you aren't confident about the market, it's better to stay out.
3. There can never be 100% confidence in the market's direction. Always remember to use stop-loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.